Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | Pacific

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 06N95W TO 03N97W TO 04N112W TO 02N126W TO 
01N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF 07N78W AND S OF 07N FROM 92W TO 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 122W WITH ANTICYCLONE AT 11N120W 
IS BECOMING SQUEEZED BY TWO LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH ON BOTH 
SIDES.  DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED IN CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER 
OKLAHOMA DIGS S ALONG 100W AND PREVENTS RIDGE FROM MOVING E 
WHILE DEEP LAYER TROUGH UPSTREAM JUST W OF 141W PRESSES FROM THE 
W.  SW JET CORE 125 KT NOT ONLY ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO 
AREA OVER WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES...BUT IS FORCING RIDGE 
CREST TO PUSH N ALONG 126W ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO 
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL. 

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 07N WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ FROM 93W-111W.  ELSEWHERE AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY DRY 
AND STABLE N OF 15N E OF 117W.  

ELSEWHERE AT TE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1024 MB AT 32N126W WHICH HAS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED ANY 
FURTHER SE INCURSION FROM THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT...BOTH...ARE 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SUN WHILE NEW HIGH PRES WELL NW OF BASIN 
MOVE CLOSER.  STRONG NW WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.  NEW RIDGE 
BRINGS ALONG TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WITH TRADES W OF 120W 
INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE.  NW WIND ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA W COAST SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO STRONG.

NEW HIGH PRES NW OF AREA PROVIDE LONG FETCH FOR LARGE LONG WAVE 
SWELLS TO PROPAGATE SE INTO E PAC W OF 110W.  

GAP WINDS...
STRONG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO FORCE 
N WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS FORECAST FOR MID SUN.  WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT E-SE AND WINDS 
DIMINISH RAPIDLY EARLY MON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS WHICH ALSO DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO 
WEAKENING OF STATIONARY FRONT IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO 
RETURN AS COLD FRONT OVER GULF OF MEXICO ENTER WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES